/// SETTING UP STATA ENVIRONMENT
* Load main data
import excel "data.xlsx", sheet("data") firstrow clear

* Setting date as timeseries variable
tsset date, m

* Generating trend and monthly variables
gen t = _n
gen m = month(dofm(date))

/// ANALYSIS
* Model 1: Trend using OLS
reg data t
estimates store model

* Creating residual variables
predict resid, res

* Checking if residual is White-Noise
wntestq resid

* Statistics
summarize resid

/// FORECASTING
* Forecasting Trend Model
forecast create trend
forecast estimates model
forecast solve, begin(m(2025m12))
forecast clear